Analysis: Will Trump Be Getting "Punitive Vote"?

Most American presidents were re-elected for a second term. Donald Trump, definitely wants to be one of those, and not from the other camp, whom each served for only one term.

In general, a president's chances of winning a second term are usually higher than his competitor, given the advantages that his position provides him, such as strong media coverage, achievements that can be promoted, and the ease of collecting funds for the election campaign.

However, the incumbent candidate may be exposed to what can be described as a punitive vote, which he receive if he does not fulfill his electoral promises or failure to overcome the crises that appear during his first term.

Throughout the history of the United States presidencies, since 1789, only ten of the 45 presidents have suffered defeat after running for a second term, when voters punished them for their policies during their first term.

And in the modern time, since World War II, 8 American presidents have managed to win a second term, while only three of them failed in that, and they are George Bush Sr., Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford.

George Bush Senior (the 41st President of America) did not gain the confidence of the voters to win a second presidential term despite his career full of positions, as the United States suffered under his rule (1989 - 1993) from an economic recession that prevented the implementation of his electoral promises when he had to impose more taxes, thus losing the elections to his rival Bill Clinton in 1992.

Jimmy Carter (the 39th President of America) is another example of the people who got punitive vote in the electorate, as he lost to his rival Ronald Reagan in the 1980 elections; he faced, during his first term (1977-1981), multiple crises, including economic recession and the American hostage crisis in Iran, and a crisis in energy supplies.

On another hand, Gerald Ford (the 38th President of America), who assumed the presidency in 1974 after the resignation of Richard Nixon following the Watergate scandal, was also unable to gain the confidence of the voters for a second term; he was unable to face the challenges of inflation, economic turmoil and crises in the energy sector, He lost the race to the White House in the 1976 election to rival Jimmy Carter.

If Trump loses this election, he would be the first president in more than a quarter of a century that serve for only one term.