2025: Lessons from a World Ruled by Power

As 2026 begins, I extend my wishes for health, stability, and prosperity to all readers. Looking back at 2025, the year stands out as a turning point in international affairs, one that can only be understood by moving beyond the surface of events to examine the deeper forces shaping global power, alliances, and conflict. The year revealed not isolated crises, but a broader transformation in how the world is governed and contested.

One of the most striking moments of 2025 was the return of Donald Trump to the White House, an exceptional episode in US political history.

Despite unprecedented challenges during his campaign, including assassination attempts and criminal convictions, Trump became only the second president to win non-consecutive terms.

His comeback reinforced a worldview centered on “America First,” applied more forcefully than during his first term. This approach challenged traditional assumptions about US leadership, global responsibility, and the nature of alliances.

The war in Ukraine continued with no decisive outcome. Western military and financial support failed to stop Russian advances or fundamentally alter the balance of power. Instead, Russia gradually regained diplomatic confidence, and President Vladimir Putin reasserted his influence internationally.

At the same time, the Middle East witnessed major upheavals. Israel moved decisively against Iran’s regional allies following the October 7, 2023, attacks, weakening Hamas and Hezbollah, destabilizing the Syrian regime, and entering confrontation with Iran. The United States reinforced this shift through airstrikes against Iranian targets and the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran’s strategic errors became increasingly apparent. Tehran overestimated the protective value of its proxy network and relied heavily on sectarian mobilization as a tool of influence.

These assumptions failed to secure Iran’s position and instead exposed its vulnerabilities within a changing regional order that no longer tolerated indirect control or ideological leverage.

A defining reality of the current international system is the dominance of power over rules. International law is frequently ignored, global institutions appear increasingly ineffective, and double standards have become routine.

This erosion has widened the gap between the Global South and major powers, while also intensifying rivalry among those powers themselves. Multilateralism, once presented as a universal framework, now often serves narrow strategic interests.

This shift was formalized in the U.S. National Security Strategy 2025, which signaled the end of a post–Cold War era. The document openly states that traditional globalization no longer serves American economic interests and that extensive overseas security commitments are no longer sustainable.

 It recognizes Asia as the primary engine of global growth and measures alliances increasingly by economic return rather than shared political values.

Europe emerged as the main casualty of this strategic shift. Long dependent on American protection, it now faces reduced support and increased demands.

Washington made clear that Europe must increase defense spending, reassess migration policies, and absorb greater economic costs. This represents a structural transformation that will reshape the Atlantic alliance over the coming years.

Europe’s limited military capacity leaves it with little leverage, particularly in the Ukraine conflict. Despite firm public rhetoric and continued aid to Kyiv, European governments are increasingly reliant on US decisions.

A US-led effort to de-escalate tensions with Russia appears more likely, a scenario that would ultimately benefit Moscow by expanding its room for geopolitical and economic maneuver.

China remains the United States’ primary strategic competitor, though the confrontation is mainly technological and industrial rather than territorial. With more than 30 percent of global industrial production, dominance across advanced supply chains, and massive investment in artificial intelligence, China challenges American leadership at the structural level of the global economy.

The central lesson of 2025 is unmistakable. The international system is moving away from rules and institutions toward power, interests, and strategic calculation. States that fail to adapt to this reality risk marginalization in a world where moral discourse increasingly masks hard geopolitical competition.