Ukraine Warns of Significant Drop in Winter Wheat Crop

Ukraine's Agriculture Minister, Mykola Solsky warned of a significant drop in the winter wheat crop if the country's main export routes continue to be closed due to the Russian invasion, threatening to exacerbate the global food crisis.

Ukraine's agriculture minister predicted the decline could be as much as two-thirds less later this year if the country's main export route remains closed, prolonging the global food crisis.

Solsky said farmers face a financial crisis if the Russian blockade of the Black Sea is not lifted. Many would not have the money to pay for seeds, fertilizers, herbicides and fuel for winter wheat and would instead grow canola, which is not used to produce grain or bread but has a higher cost and lower yield, which means there will be less transportation.

The Russian Black Sea blockade has hurt Ukraine's grain exports, driving up food prices and leaving some of the poorer countries in the Middle East and Africa scrambling for wheat.

Ukraine, known as Europe's breadbasket, produced 33 million tons of grain last year, and before the invasion the USDA had expected to export 24 million tons in 2022, roughly the same size as the United States. It is the world's fifth largest wheat exporter, representing 80 percent of Lebanon's imports, and a major supplier to countries such as Somalia, Syria and Libya.

He told the Financial Times in an interview that a prolonged blockade would deprive farmers of cash flow and "break the financial cycle" of Ukraine's agriculture, leading to further significant declines in exports. "Farmers will reduce winter crops, wheat and barley from 30% to 60%," he added.

Ukraine is in talks with Russia on a deal to resume food exports across the Black Sea. But if Ukraine's ports remain closed next spring, Solsky said farmers will "drastically reduce" planting corn and planting soybeans and sunflowers instead, again due to lower yields and higher prices.

Declining wheat and maize production in 2023 will prolong global grain shortages and raise food prices for even longer.