J.P. Morgan sees gold surging 22% by end-2026 on strong central bank, investor demand

Gold prices are expected to climb a further 22 percent from current levels by the end of 2026, driven by sustained buying from central banks and investors, according to the latest forecast from US investment bank J.P. Morgan.

In a research note published Wednesday, the bank said spot gold could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, as structural demand continues to underpin the market. It also lifted its long-term price forecast to $4,500 per ounce.

The outlook builds on the bank’s earlier projections that the bullion rally would remain intact, supported by new demand from Chinese insurance companies and the crypto sector. Analysts said the forces driving the re-pricing of gold at higher levels are not yet exhausted.

“While the rally is unlikely to be linear, the long-term trend of reserve and portfolio diversification into gold still has further to run,” the bank’s commodities strategists said, projecting prices toward $5,000 per ounce by year-end 2026 under their base-case scenario.

Demand surge

According to the note, combined investor demand — including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures, bars and coins — alongside central bank purchases totalled around 980 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025. That marked an increase of more than 50 percent compared with the average of the previous four quarters.

At an average quarterly price of $3,458 per ounce, roughly 950 tonnes equated to about $109 billion in inflows, nearly 90 percent higher than the prior four-quarter average, the bank said.

For 2026, J.P. Morgan expects average quarterly demand from investors and central banks to reach about 585 tonnes. This would include roughly 190 tonnes per quarter from central banks and 330 tonnes from bar and coin demand, in addition to around 275 tonnes of annual inflows into ETFs and futures, largely concentrated earlier in the year.

The bank estimates that the relationship between quarterly demand volumes and prices explains about 70 percent of the quarter-on-quarter change in gold. It calculates that net demand of around 350 tonnes per quarter is needed to sustain price gains, with every additional 100 tonnes potentially adding about two percent to quarterly price growth.

Central banks remain key

Despite three consecutive years of central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, the bank expects official buying to remain elevated in 2026 at around 755 tonnes. Although below recent peaks, this would still be well above pre-2022 averages of 400 to 500 tonnes per year.

Analysts described the anticipated moderation as a mechanical adjustment rather than a structural shift, noting that at prices around or above $4,000 per ounce, central banks need fewer tonnes to raise gold’s share in their reserves.

Investor positioning in futures markets also remains net long, reflecting expectations of further price appreciation. The bank forecasts ETF inflows of about 250 tonnes in 2026, while demand for physical bars and coins is projected to exceed 1,200 tonnes for the year.

Upside risks

J.P. Morgan also outlined a more bullish scenario, suggesting that if just 0.5 percent of foreign holdings of US assets were reallocated into gold, the resulting demand could be sufficient to push prices toward $6,000 per ounce.

With mine supply relatively inelastic and slow to respond to higher prices, and demand expected to remain robust, the bank said risks remain skewed toward reaching its multi-year targets sooner than anticipated.

Gold has traditionally benefited from a weaker US dollar, lower interest rates and heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty — factors that have all supported the ongoing rally, reinforcing its role as both a hedge against currency debasement and an alternative to yield-bearing US assets.