Gold prices in the local market recorded a slight decline today, Saturday, during trading, coinciding with the weekend closure of the global exchange, following a marginal 0.4% drop in the international ounce price during the week. This decline came on the back of strong economic data released from the United States, in addition to progress made in trade negotiations between Washington and its partners, which reduced the demand for the precious metal as a safe haven.
Gold prices fell by about EGP 15 during today’s trading session compared to the close of yesterday’s trading, with the price of 21-carat gold reaching the level of EGP 4,620 per gram, while the ounce price on the global exchange declined by about $13 to record $3,337 during the week ending last Friday evening.
The price of 24-carat gold reached EGP 5,280, 18-carat gold was recorded at EGP 3,960, 14-carat gold reached EGP 3,080, while the price of the gold pound coin amounted to about EGP 36,960.
Prices had ended yesterday’s trading session, Friday, with a local decline of EGP 25, as the price of 21-carat gold opened at EGP 4,660 and closed at EGP 4,635, while the ounce price dropped from $3,371 to $3,337.
Gold came under selling pressure following the release of strong U.S. labor data, along with progress in trade talks between the United States and the European Union, which was reflected in investor behavior. In addition, the recovery of the U.S. dollar—despite declining Treasury yields—supported this trend, making the metal more expensive for foreign buyers.
Economic data released from the United States and the progress made in trade agreements with it affected safe-haven demand, which pushed the yellow metal lower. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar regained some of its strength despite the decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the range of 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth time this year during next week’s meeting. Data released throughout the month justified the Fed’s stance of maintaining its current policy, after initial jobless claims declined for the fourth consecutive week, highlighting the strength of the labor market. Meanwhile, durable goods orders fell on Friday, driven by a decrease in aircraft orders.
Positive trade news emerged since Monday after an agreement between the United States and Japan was announced. Reports of a possible similar deal with the European Union before the August 1 deadline pushed the non-yielding yellow metal below $3,400 per ounce, nearing its weekly low of $3,325 per ounce.
In U.S. trade developments, President Donald Trump announced that most trade deals have been finalized, and upcoming statements are expected to determine tariff rates ranging between 10% and 15%. When asked about the possibility of reaching an agreement with the European Union, Trump stated that there is an “equal” chance of reaching a deal.
Gold prices also declined as the U.S. dollar rebounded from its nearly two-week low, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Recent news revealed that Trump’s visit to the Federal Reserve was not a market-moving event, although it appears he has changed his stance toward Powell.
Gold prices fell despite the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by three basis points to reach 4.386%. As a result, U.S. real yields—which are calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates—fell by 1.5 basis points to reach 1.936%.
On Thursday, better-than-expected initial jobless claims indicated continued labor market strength, even as S&P Global announced a contraction in manufacturing activity. U.S. durable goods orders fell in June, mainly driven by a sharp drop in aircraft demand. Headline orders decreased by 9.6% month-over-month after a 16.5% increase in May. Although the decline was significant, it was smaller than analysts’ expectations of a -10.8% contraction. Transportation equipment led the drop, falling by 22.4% in June.
However, core durable goods orders—which exclude transportation—rose by 0.2%, indicating some underlying strength in business investment.
Interest rate probabilities suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates, with a 96% chance of no change and a 4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in the July 30 meeting.
Next week’s U.S. economic agenda includes the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on July 30, preliminary second-quarter GDP figures, the release of the Core PCE Price Index, and non-farm payroll data.
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