Gold Prices Surge by EGP 700 in February Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices in Egypt’s local market posted strong gains during February, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and rising demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the U.S.–Israeli–Iranian conflict, according to a report released by the Ai Sagha platform.

Saeed Embabi, CEO of the platform, said local gold prices climbed 10% خلال February, with 21-karat gold rising by EGP 700 per gram. The metal opened the month at EGP 6,825 and closed at EGP 7,525 per gram.

Globally, gold gained 8% خلال the month, advancing by $384 per ounce. Prices began February at $4,895, touched a record high of $5,296, and ended the month at $5,279 per ounce.

Embabi added that local gold prices also increased 9% over the past week, in parallel with a 3.3% rise in global ounce prices, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid mounting geopolitical risks.

On a weekly basis, 21-karat gold advanced by EGP 600, rising from EGP 6,925 to EGP 7,525 per gram. Internationally, gold climbed by $171, from $5,108 to $5,279 per ounce by week’s end.

Meanwhile, 24-karat gold reached EGP 8,600 per gram, 18-karat gold stood at EGP 6,450, and the gold pound coin was priced at approximately EGP 60,200.

Embabi noted that the local market experienced pricing disparities and temporary disruptions after some traders suspended price quotations, coinciding with the U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran and the global market’s weekend closure. As a precautionary move, some sellers priced gold at premiums exceeding EGP 400 above fair value, anticipating a strong market opening at the start of the week.

Spot gold recently traded above $5,279 per ounce as tensions in the Middle East intensified. Analysts expect further record highs if the crisis escalates, while crude oil prices could also rise sharply amid concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Future gold price trends will largely depend on the scale and intensity of Iran’s response and whether the conflict broadens. In a worst-case scenario, gold could solidify its position as the ultimate global safe haven, potentially reaching new historic highs.

Although global markets were closed over the weekend, local spot prices reflected expectations of a strong Monday opening, fueled by elevated risk premiums.

Rising geopolitical tensions have also increased local market risk premiums, with investors expected to reduce exposure to risk assets in favor of gold and silver. Oil prices may climb further if supply disruptions materialize.

Embabi emphasized that gold prices were already elevated before the strikes, but the latest escalation significantly boosted demand. He urged investors to closely monitor political developments due to their direct impact on gold, oil, and global equity markets.

Oil prices also moved higher this week, with Brent crude reaching a six-month high. In an extreme scenario, if Iranian actions disrupt major Gulf oil facilities and affect part of the region’s estimated 18 million barrels per day in exports, global oil prices could surge beyond $130 per barrel.

According to Reuters, four trading sources said several major oil companies and leading trading houses suspended crude and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.–Israeli attack and Tehran’s announcement of a navigation halt.

Data from energy consultancy Kpler show that more than 14 million barrels per day passed through the strait in 2025, representing roughly one-third of global seaborne crude exports.

On the economic front, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% in January, compared with 0.4% in December and above expectations of 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 2.9%.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.8% month-on-month, significantly exceeding forecasts of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, core inflation reached 3.6%, above expectations of 3%.

Some analysts believe persistent inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to delay anticipated interest rate cuts. However, markets still price in around 58 basis points of easing this year, with the first cut potentially postponed to the July 29 meeting.

During U.S. trading on Friday, February 27, 2026, spot gold jumped more than $100 per ounce to $5,278.10. Gold futures on COMEX closed 2% higher at $5,296.40, marking a daily gain of $102.20.

Silver was even more volatile, surging nearly 8% to $93.82 per ounce in a single session, up $6.83, as investors returned to defensive assets.

With geopolitical tensions ongoing and markets closely watching developments in the Middle East, precious metals are likely to maintain their appeal as safe havens. However, heightened volatility calls for caution, as global political developments and U.S. economic data continue to play a decisive role in shaping both international and local market trends.