Fidelity International: Gold Could Reach $4,000 per Ounce by 2026 Amid Supportive Macro Factors

Fidelity International, one of the world’s largest investment firms, has expressed optimism about the continued upward trend in gold prices. The firm forecasts that the yellow metal could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by a combination of economic and geopolitical factors driving investors to strengthen their gold positions as a safe haven.

The outlook was shared by Ian Samson, Portfolio Manager for Multi Asset Funds at Fidelity, during a recent interview with Bloomberg, where he emphasized that the current environment presents ideal conditions for gold to climb higher, despite potential short-term volatility expected during the third quarter of the year.

Easing Monetary Policy and a Weaker Dollar

Samson explained that the anticipated shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy toward interest rate cuts is likely to provide a strong foundation for sustained gold momentum.

“We see a clearer path toward more accommodative monetary policy, which supports gold in the medium term,” he stated.

Fidelity also expects the U.S. dollar to gradually weaken amid a projected slowdown in U.S. economic growth, further enhancing gold’s appeal in global markets, especially given its pricing in dollars.

Increased Investment Exposure to Gold

In line with this view, Fidelity revealed that some of its multi-asset funds have doubled their gold allocations from 5% to 10% over the past year — a clear sign of growing confidence in the metal as a defensive asset in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Despite gold pulling back from its record high of over $3,500 per ounce in April, Fidelity does not consider current levels to be overvalued. On the contrary, the firm sees today’s performance as consistent with past bullish cycles, such as the 2001–2011 rally, during which gold posted a compound annual growth rate of around 20%.

Institutional and Central Bank Demand Supporting the Rally

A key driver of Fidelity’s bullish outlook is the continued accumulation of gold by central banks worldwide to bolster their reserves. This trend has become increasingly evident amid rising geopolitical tensions and widening fiscal deficits in major economies, providing long-term structural support to prices.

Fidelity also pointed to growing concerns over protectionist trade policies, including tariff hikes and rising global disputes, which are elevating geopolitical risk premiums and further boosting demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

Market Outlook: Short-Term Corrections, Long-Term Upside

Although gold has already gained over 25% since the beginning of 2025, Fidelity expects a period of consolidation or minor pullback during August, a seasonal trend Samson described as “typical.” Nonetheless, the firm maintains that the broader trajectory remains decisively upward, viewing any correction as an opportunity to establish fresh positions ahead of a potential new rally.

In conclusion, Fidelity International reaffirmed its $4,000 per ounce target as realistic rather than excessive, grounded in strong fundamentals, including accommodative monetary policy, dollar weakness, and rising institutional and central bank demand — all signaling a market environment increasingly oriented toward caution and risk-hedging.