Gold prices advanced in local markets and on global exchanges during Monday’s trading, as investors rushed to safe-haven assets following wide-ranging strikes carried out by the United States and Israel on Iran that resulted in the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to a report released by the Ai Sagha platform.
Saeed Embabi, Executive Director of the platform, said local gold prices rose by around EGP 50 per gram during the day’s trading, with 21-karat gold reaching EGP 7,575. Globally, the ounce gained approximately $114 to trade at $5,393.
Meanwhile, 24-karat gold recorded EGP 8,657 per gram, 18-karat gold stood at EGP 6,493, and the gold pound coin approached EGP 60,600.
Local gold prices had already posted strong gains in February, with 21-karat gold rising by EGP 700, marking a 10% increase. The month opened at EGP 6,825 and closed at EGP 7,525 per gram.
On the global front, gold climbed 8% in February, gaining $384. The metal opened the month at $4,895 per ounce, touched a record high of $5,296, and ended February at $5,279.
Middle East escalation boosts safe-haven demand
Markets reacted sharply to the rapid developments in the Middle East, amid fears of a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.
Israel launched a fresh wave of strikes on Tehran targeting leadership infrastructure and air defenses, while Iran responded with missile attacks against Israeli territory and U.S. bases in the Gulf.
The geopolitical shock triggered a wave of risk aversion across financial markets, weighing on equities and lifting crude oil prices, which in turn strengthened gold’s appeal as a store of value.
Analysts at ING noted that any regional spillover or disruption to energy supplies would likely push gold prices significantly higher through rising oil prices, stronger inflation expectations, and lower real yields.
Key technical levels in focus
Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted $5,400 per ounce as a key level to watch on the upside, followed by the late-January record of $5,595 per ounce.
Brown said the latest developments reinforce the fundamental drivers supporting gold, arguing that the metal is likely to continue benefiting from safe-haven flows in an increasingly unstable global environment, underpinned by strong retail and central bank demand. He also projected that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by year-end.
Gold has risen roughly 25% so far this year, supported by geopolitical risks, sustained central bank purchases, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will move toward monetary easing.
News-driven volatility ahead
Commodity strategists at ING said gold’s rally reflects markets pricing in renewed geopolitical risk premiums. Short-term price action is expected to remain highly sensitive to incoming headlines, with elevated volatility likely.
If higher crude oil prices fuel inflation expectations while growth risks intensify, real yields could remain subdued, providing further support for gold. However, a stronger U.S. dollar may temper the pace of gains.
Should tensions remain contained and energy flows unaffected, the initial risk-off sentiment may gradually fade. Nevertheless, structural factors — including ongoing central bank buying and anticipated monetary easing later this year — suggest that any pullbacks are likely to be limited and corrective rather than signaling a reversal of the broader uptrend.
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