Trump-Europe: Towards a New World Order

By Dr. Abdelhak Azzouzi

With the second term of US President Donald Trump, the global order has entered a new era. We have witnessed broad geopolitical changes in Europe and in NATO's objectives. We may enter an era in which three blocs are established in the world: the United States, Russia, and China. However, chaos and conflict may spread across the international arena, and every region of the world will adapt unsteadily to the new configuration of power.

No one could have predicted that President Trump would create such a major crack in the wall of the new world order, nor would all these strategic changes in the world, especially in Europe, which have occurred to the point that the EU leaders are now gripped by a deep existential fear, as they live between the anvil of the necessity of maintaining friendship with the U.S. and the hammer of European strategic military independence.

The EU has awakened to a new reality

Former US President Biden was generously and enthusiastically sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine, without financial compensation. He reassured his allies in Europe that NATO was a military umbrella protected by American intelligence and fueled by the latest American military technology. Europeans were thus safe from being caught in their volatility, as they were neither helpless nor fearful but, with US President Trump everything changed.

Europeans found themselves with a man sitting on the throne of the White House, holding the reins of full executive power. Every day, he issues decisions that he signs without regard for the literature on the separation of powers in American history, amidst the astonishing and unprecedented silence of the Democrats.

They found themselves dealing with a smart businessman, skilled in negotiations, and unafraid of the consequences. He views Europe's meager contribution to its defense as if the U.S. was the guardian among nations. He began the process of disciplining and taming the Ukrainians, leading to the unprecedented public altercation between him and the Ukrainian President Zelensky in the White House's Oval Office. This confrontation was broadcast live by international media, causing astonishment and panic in many countries, especially EU allies.

Washington immediately changed its position on the Russian-Ukrainian war and froze its military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. That night did not pass before successive meetings of European leaders began, driven only by one wing of the European Union, namely France, after the other wing, namely Germany, was afflicted with difficult internal political problems. The result was that EU leaders agreed on a plan to rearm Europe, allocating approximately 800 billion euros, a large portion of which will certainly be allocated to purchasing U.S. weapons.

The problem is not the financial resources that European taxpayers will reluctantly provide, but rather it is related to production capacity. Europe cannot produce weapons on a large scale; arms factories are few compared to their American, Russian, or Chinese counterparts. There is a need to build new facilities, develop supply chains, and manufacture raw materials to keep pace with demand. The Ukrainians will also allow the United States to exploit Ukraine's rare earth minerals to cover the military expenses of former President Biden's administration for the benefit of the Ukrainians. According to the German Kiel Institute, Washington alone provided approximately half of the value of military aid to Ukraine from 2022 to 2024.

The winner today is President Trump's America par excellence, and the biggest loser is Ukraine and Europe. This equation will continue because even if Europe spends all the money in the world on its armaments, it cannot do without America, its weapons, its intelligence, its spy satellites, its surveillance systems, its hegemony, and its central and policing role in NATO and the world.

Another problem troubling European allies is that the world has entered a phase of uncertainty, apprehension, ambiguity, and doubt more than ever before. This is because they do not know what President Trump hides in his heart and does not reveal to them. He always demands more because he is in a state of strength and does not care about diplomatic, economic, and commercial norms and traditions. He sanctifies the principle of "America First" and seeks to change the global order that nations have become accustomed to and that theorists have envisioned for decades.

Trump makes unprecedented and successive decisions

To recall that, in forty days only, the US president issued 79 executive orders, equivalent to the total number of decrees issued by Biden during his first year in the White House. All of this falls within the framework of the American Trump doctrine based on "reviving the American dream" and the subsequent strict immigration policies, as well as other economic policies based on imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU. 

Together, these policies are changing the global order, destabilizing markets and stock exchanges, laying off workers, and affecting the future of the ruling parties in these countries.