The Principle of Ambiguity and The Course of History

Throughout history, scholars of international relations and the sociology of political events have often discussed principles and theories that summarize conceptual frameworks built by the human mind to link certain principles to specific outcomes.

These frameworks interpret various phenomena through a deductive system and define causal relationships between strategic variables. They assist decision-makers in shaping their strategies, strengthening public policies, and avoiding pitfalls and errors.

Today, with the current occupant of the White House imposing tariffs on countries worldwide, repeatedly backtracking on decisions, and facing intense scrutiny from all nations over his plans, which remain shrouded in mystery, it is evident that the United States is adopting a strategy of ambiguity.

This phase is likely to continue for a long time. The principle of ambiguity will have significant repercussions on international markets, the structure of the new world order, future conflicts, and the lives of millions of individuals across the globe.

In a message delivered to the United States Congress on December 2, 1823, American President James Monroe announced the Monroe Doctrine. This principle aimed to guarantee the independence of all nations in the Western Hemisphere against European intervention.

It forbade the creation of new colonies in the Americas and restricted the expansion of existing American colonies, promoting non-intervention and non-occupation. The Monroe Doctrine achieved its intended results.

In March 1947, President Harry Truman introduced the Truman Doctrine, which sought to assist free peoples resisting armed minorities or external pressures. According to Truman’s understanding, totalitarian regimes are always fueled by poverty and deprivation, thriving when a people’s hope for a better life dies.

The Truman Doctrine successfully raised awareness among the American people of their responsibility to defend vulnerable nations and demonstrated America’s readiness to oppose appeasement tactics, halting the anticipated communist victory in Greece after the British government decided to cease its aid.

Following this, in June 1947, President Truman appointed General George Marshall as Secretary of State. Marshall announced his plan to support Europe economically, known as the Marshall Plan. Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov famously referred to the Marshall Plan as a new form of colonialism.

Under the Marshall Plan, the United States spent more than 12 billion dollars to support the economies of Western Europe. This assistance had tangible effects not only on economic recovery but also on political stability in the aging European continent.

In 1968, the struggling Soviet Union announced the Brezhnev Doctrine, named after leader Leonid Brezhnev. This principle was similar to the Truman Doctrine but operated in the opposite direction, aiming to support movements hostile to Western interests and intervening directly in the internal affairs of sovereign nations.

The Brezhnev Doctrine resulted in the strengthening of Soviet-Cuban relations, the Soviet intervention in Prague in 1968, and the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

In 1989, the end of the Cold War was symbolized by a surprising new principle. When Mikhail Gorbachev’s spokesperson was asked about the relevance of the Brezhnev Doctrine amid democratic waves sweeping Hungary and Poland, he responded that the principle now guiding events was the Sinatra Doctrine. This paved the way for a surge of democracy across Eastern Europe.

Today, a new Principle of Ambiguity emerges under President Trump’s administration. Some might have preferred to label his strategy the “Madman Strategy,” echoing Richard Nixon’s approach intended to convince North Vietnam that he was willing to do anything, including the use of nuclear weapons, to end the Vietnam War. However, in President Trump’s case, the principle he applies is ambiguity, uncertainty, and unpredictability in economic, financial, and geopolitical arenas crucial to the future of nations worldwide.

Trump is a leader who understands what he says and does, yet his true intentions remain impossible to predict. One must master the art of strategic intelligence, remain calm, avoid rash responses, and realize that the world has changed. The era of operating under the structured rules of the World Trade Organization and traditional diplomacy has ended.