The Militarization of Politics and Future Wars

Until recently, we used to hear about the militarization of migration, where European countries spend billions each year on research and the development of security technologies, especially for border management projects. EU countries have begun deploying drones, underwater surveillance devices, 3D radars, and advanced sensors to increase security along their external borders—to the extent that some European affairs experts argue that technology is actually making border areas more dangerous for people. It is said to escalate violence and grant excessive power to border guards.

Some European nations now also use artificial intelligence (AI) to monitor their largest cities and track down unregistered and undocumented migrants. For example, Greece has equipped its police officers with devices resembling smartphones that assist in facial recognition and fingerprint data analysis. In other words, migrants now live between the militarization of external and internal surveillance—aimed at preventing their arrival in Europe or facilitating their expulsion. This coincides with the daily evolution of AI technologies in service of this militarization.

But what is unfolding today in the global security environment allows us to speak of a new phenomenon: the militarization of politics. Just days ago, the French President announced a plan to accelerate national defense spending. France's military budget, which stood at €32 billion in 2017, is set to reach €64 billion by 2027—with €3.5 billion allocated for next year, and an additional €3 billion for 2027. This strategic shift comes even as France faces a severe financial crisis and aims to cut €40 billion from its 2026 budget.

Similarly, the British Prime Minister has declared the largest sustained increase in defense spending since the Cold War, raising the defense budget to 2.6% of GDP, with plans to reach 3% by 2029. A similar trend is observable in Germany.

What exactly is happening?

The European continent is gripped by fear of a future marked by four defining features: apprehension, ambiguity, uncertainty, and the unknown. The French President recently acknowledged this in his annual address to the armed forces on the eve of France's national holiday:

“We are living in a time of disruption. We’ve seen it coming for a while, and now it’s a reality... The international order that emerged after World War II is being increasingly contested and weakened.”

“As rules disappear, the law of the strongest prevails.”

Key European powers no longer place full trust in their strategic military alliance with the United States. They believe the war in Ukraine is a harbinger of a future where Russia could resort to nuclear weapons. To be respected—and to survive—nations must be strong and capable of deterrence.

European countries are now openly declaring the end of international law when global conflicts involve nuclear powers. We are increasingly hearing about the possibility of building an independent European nuclear shield, and discussions around France and the UK extending their nuclear umbrellas to cover more European allies.

In today’s world, the U.S. and Russia control about 90% of the world's nuclear warheads: Russia owns roughly 5,459 warheads, while the United States has about 5,177. In contrast, the UK's arsenal consists of 225 nuclear warheads, and France holds 290. It’s also crucial to note that other global powers are aggressively pursuing nuclear arms, most notably China, which currently maintains the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal—adding around 100 warheads annually since 2023, bringing its total to approximately 600 nuclear warheads.

The problem today is not only traditional weapons or nuclear security. The real issue lies in the technological transformation of warfare. The next nuclear arms race will likely center on artificial intelligence, cyberspace, and outer space. We're moving beyond the familiar arsenal of missile silos, submarines, and aircraft-delivered bombs. The role of software will be just as crucial as hardware.

This shift will make monitoring and controlling nuclear weapons stockpiles far more difficult. A minor software bug or glitch in an AI-driven system could, in the worst-case scenario, trigger a nuclear strike.

All of this explains the militarization of politics and public policies that countries have started adopting. Ultimately, it leads us toward embracing the law of force and straying further from the path of peace.