Tensions Between Delhi and Islamabad: A Ceasefire Declared, but Will It Last?

The ongoing crisis between India and Pakistan continues to draw significant international attention. While the global community watches with concern over the fate of political relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, former US President Donald Trump announced that he had successfully influenced both Delhi and Islamabad to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In a tweet, Trump wrote: “After a long night of talks mediated by Washington, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. Congratulations to both nations for their common sense and great intelligence.”

The US Secretary of State also welcomed the ceasefire agreement and the opening of dialogue channels. Pakistan responded by reopening its airspace to all types of flights, while India announced a new round of negotiations scheduled for 12 May to follow up on the ceasefire implementation and activate military communication channels. However, mutual accusations and hostile statements between officials from both sides persisted.

Two days ago, The Guardian reported comments by US Vice President “D. Vance” who stated that the current crisis between India and Pakistan was “none of America’s business”, while expressing hope that the situation would not escalate into a broader regional conflict. He added that the United States would continue pursuing diplomatic channels to resolve the issue. Meanwhile, Reuters focused its coverage on an explosion in Lahore, while CNN, citing a Pakistani security source, reported that the recent air combat between Indian and Pakistani fighter jets was among the largest and longest aerial battles in modern military history.

Washington was not the only party involved in mediation. Several other capitals with good ties to both sides—such as Riyadh, Tehran, Ankara, and Abu Dhabi—also stepped in to defuse tensions. The US Secretary of State played a direct role in calming the political and military situation, maintaining communication with both the Pakistani Prime Minister and Army Chief. This coincided with Pakistan launching a large-scale military operation named “Bunyan Mursas” (Solid Structure) in retaliation for recent Indian attacks. According to Pakistan’s BOL News, the Pakistani Army targeted strategic Indian military facilities during the operation, including the “Udhampur” and “Pathankot” bases, and a “BrahMos” missile facility. While Delhi confirmed the attack, it downplayed the damage, stating that its military installations had been targeted but denying that there had been any significant losses.

India responded with precise airstrikes targeting Pakistani airbases, military installations, and a radar site in the western sector, in retaliation for Pakistani drone attacks. In turn, Islamabad escalated the confrontation on the cyber front. BOL News reported that dozens of Indian government and private websites were hacked, resulting in a disruption of around 70% of the national power grid and affecting energy supplies. Despite reports of direct military communications between the two sides—suggesting efforts to reduce tensions through dialogue—hostilities remain high.

In light of these developments, it is clear that cyber warfare has become one of the most significant features of the tension between Delhi and Islamabad. Its emergence as an effective tool became particularly evident after the “Pahalgam incident,” when a Pakistani threat group claimed responsibility for hacking websites connected to India’s defence sector. This underscores the growing role of cyber activities in international crises. Indian groups had also conducted cyberattacks in late April, targeting Pakistani institutions like Habib Bank and the University of Balochistan.

Diplomatic sparring was also evident during the escalation. The Times of India cited the Indian Embassy in Washington, stating that Delhi possesses evidence of Pakistani terrorist involvement in the Jammu and Kashmir attack that killed 26 civilians. India criticised Pakistan’s inaction and accused it of spreading misinformation. It insisted that its military operations were limited and specifically targeted terrorist sites, avoiding civilian and military infrastructure. The report also stated that India had informed the United States of its actions to underscore its transparency and international cooperation in fighting terrorism. India reiterated that the safety of its citizens is a priority and expressed willingness for dialogue—conditional upon Pakistan’s serious commitment to counterterrorism. It is noteworthy that, despite the declared ceasefire, India continues to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.

International and regional positions remain divided, with some countries supporting Delhi and others backing Islamabad. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed “regret” over the Indian attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, calling for calm and urging both sides to avoid further escalation. Turkey’s foreign minister voiced concern over India’s “unjustified aggression and violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty,” reaffirming Turkey’s full solidarity with Islamabad. Pakistan’s military announced the downing of six Israeli-made drones over Indian villages—an event that may have prompted the sudden and previously indifferent US intervention. This move may also reflect Washington’s desire to counterbalance growing Chinese military support for Pakistan, which could undermine the global reputation of Western and American arms.

As for the global and UN response to the ceasefire—regardless of whether it proves durable—UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed efforts to de-escalate the situation. A UN spokesperson added that the organisation is closely monitoring developments and supports all efforts aimed at reducing tensions.

Egypt and the UAE also welcomed the ceasefire, commending former President Trump’s role and expressing confidence in both countries’ commitment to maintaining peace. Saudi Arabia likewise welcomed the truce, expressing hope that it will contribute to restoring regional security and stability. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir visited both Delhi and Islamabad on 8 and 9 May to support diplomatic efforts.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy hailed the ceasefire and urged both nations to continue de-escalating tensions for the benefit of all parties. Iran's Foreign Ministry welcomed the truce as well, stressing the importance of seizing this opportunity to reduce tensions and achieve sustainable peace. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry added that true stability in South Asia requires sustained dialogue addressing security and counterterrorism. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the ceasefire as a vital step toward de-escalation and emphasised the importance of its full implementation.