Studay: Earth's Temperature May Increase by 2.7°C by 2100

The Earth is now projected to warm by roughly 2.7°C by the end of this century, according to a new study. 

That’s lower than the 4°C+ scenarios but it’s still a level of warming that could bring dangerous impacts.

Research led by Sven Teske, Director at the Institute for Sustainable Futures, suggests that while the planet is no longer headed for the most extreme climate breakdown, the outlook remains “unprecedentedly perilous.” 

The findings confirm that avoiding total climate collapse does not mean avoiding disaster.

Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world has made tangible progress. Renewables, energy efficiency, and cleaner technologies have helped bend the curve. The scenario where coal use surges and emissions spiral out of control is now unlikely.

Global CO₂ emissions have been rising since the 1850s. In 2024, the planet temporarily hit the 1.5°C threshold, with that year confirmed as the hottest on record. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to map out possible futures. 

Earth is currently on a path between RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, which aligns with the 2.7°C estimate.

There’s some hope. Emissions are starting to slow. The EU cut its emissions by over 8% in 2023, and China’s CO₂ output is now falling for the first time, thanks to rapid growth in solar, wind, EVs, and batteries. The U.S. and Australia have also recorded slight drops, though not enough to stay within the remaining global carbon budget.

Teske and colleagues warn that to limit warming to around 1.5°C, emissions need to peak by this year—2025. If not, every delay locks in more warming.

In 2024, over 90% of new electricity generation worldwide came from renewables. Electric vehicles have become cost-competitive, and solar power is surging.

Still, even with technologies in place, time is running out. Ending deforestation, accelerating clean energy, and cutting fossil fuel use are non-negotiables. Every tenth of a degree avoided matters.