Global statistics network Opta has released its first projections for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, placing Spain at the top of the list of contenders for the title. The rankings featured several unexpected outcomes, the most striking of which was the inclusion of Egypt as one of the potential winners—albeit with a very small probability.
Spain emerged as the strongest early favorite with a 17 percent chance of winning the tournament, buoyed by its Euro 2024 triumph under coach Luis de la Fuente. France followed with a 14.1 percent chance, ahead of England at 11.8 percent. Reigning world champions Argentina ranked fourth with 8.7 percent, marking a noticeable drop from their status in the previous edition.
Egypt appeared in the rankings with a 0.3 percent chance of lifting the trophy, placing them 26th overall and ahead of several higher-profile national teams. Analysts viewed this inclusion as a modest but encouraging indication of the team’s potential trajectory ahead of the tournament.
The draw for the expanded 2026 World Cup also produced high-profile matchups across the groups. Egypt landed in Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, and New Zealand, while other groups placed Brazil with Morocco and Scotland, Germany with Ivory Coast and Ecuador, and Spain with Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. The expanded format is expected to intensify competition and create space for notable surprises from African and Arab teams.
Opta’s early forecast suggests that the 2026 edition may become one of the most unpredictable World Cups in recent memory, with traditional powerhouses facing rising challengers across multiple continents.
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