Israel Killed 4% of Gaza’s Population, Report Says

In a searing report that has triggered international shockwaves, Israel’s Haaretz newspaper reported Friday that nearly 100,000 Palestinians—equivalent to around 4% of Gaza’s population—have died as a result of Israel's military operations and their indirect consequences since October 7, 2023, making the Gaza conflict “the deadliest war of the 21st century.”

The report, based on a study by internationally recognized researchers, including British economist Professor Michael Spagat and prominent Palestinian pollster Dr. Khalil Shikaki, claims that the Palestinian death toll—far surpassing official figures—has been underreported by at least 40%.

The team surveyed over 2,000 Gazan families encompassing approximately 10,000 individuals. Their findings estimate that by January 2025, roughly 75,200 people had already been killed in the enclave, most as a direct result of Israeli munitions. In contrast, Gaza’s Ministry of Health had at that time reported 45,660 fatalities.

While the researchers’ data remains in preprint and has not yet undergone formal peer review, Haaretz noted that the findings align closely with a separate January 2025 study by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, which used different methodologies but reached similar conclusions about the scale of underreporting.

Professor Spagat, whose work has covered conflict mortality in Syria, Iraq, and Kosovo, told Haaretz, “Gaza now ranks among the most lethal conflicts per capita in the modern era—particularly in the ratio of civilian to combatant casualties.”

Women and Children: Over Half of the Dead

According to the research, 56% of the deceased were women or children under the age of 18—a proportion that dramatically surpasses civilian casualty rates seen in other recent wars, including in Kosovo (20%), Iraq (17%), and Syria (20%).

The findings challenge Israeli government claims that over 20,000 Hamas operatives have been killed, a figure critics say is unsupported by verifiable evidence or detailed casualty records.

The report highlights how indirect factors—including hunger, disease, and the shelling of aid distribution centers—have significantly contributed to the death toll. Palestinian witnesses and aid workers allege that Israeli forces fired on crowds near food distribution sites, incidents that have killed over 500 people and injured hundreds more in recent weeks, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Aid Under Fire, Trust Under Strain

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a newly formed relief body supported by a U.S. private contractor, began distributing food aid at four locations across southern Gaza in May. Witnesses allege multiple shootings occurred along roads to these distribution sites, causing panic among starving residents.

With ceasefire talks stalled and aid deliveries restricted, humanitarian organizations warn of catastrophic levels of starvation and disease spreading through the war-ravaged strip.

As the war nears its 22nd month, researchers and rights groups are calling for independent investigations and unfettered access to Gaza, where data collection remains severely limited by ongoing hostilities.