Future of Europe’s Strategic Autonomy Project, Op-ed

We remember the French President's remarks about the "clinical death" of NATO more than a year ago, which sparked controversy in coinciding with the celebration of the leaders of states and governments in London to mark NATO’s 70th anniversary.

US President Donald Trump described the remarks of his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron as "bad", "insulting" and "extremely dangerous", considering that " Nobody needs NATO more than France."

Then Trump said that France suffers from a "very high unemployment rate", weak economic performance, and problems with the "yellow jackets" protesters. He also criticized a new tax approved by France that mainly affects Internet giants Google, Amazon, Apple, and Facebook, which are all American companies.

According to the French president, the Americans cannot be relied upon as guarantors of European Atlantic security. Therefore, he recommends, in all his media outputs, that Europeans must take their defense into their own hands, otherwise, geopolitical marginalization will threaten them, and the European community will experience drastic consequences. We have been hearing these words throughout President Trump's presidential term.

The question here is: Can the French president come up with a realistic and serious project on strategic autonomy for Europe with Joe Biden taking over power in the White House?

Europe welcomed Biden, the new US president, after four years of troubles with US President Donald Trump; this welcome comes in light of threats to French President Macron’s project based on the geopolitical independence of the European Union. Macron’s vision was drawing its power from Trump's continuous attack on Europe. Today, things will change entirely.

In a lengthy interview with Macron recently, the French president wondered: "Will the change of the American administration lead Europeans to give up efforts to achieve greater strategic autonomy?."

Macron explained his strategy, which aims for Europe to be able to maintain its place in a world dominated by giants such as the United States (U.S.) and China. He also highlighted the cultural and geopolitical differences between the two sides on both sides of the Atlantic, and made it clear that Europe should seek to prove its strategic importance "for itself" and "confronting the Sino-American double monopoly."

For several years, the French president repeated his words that a more powerful France would only be achieved through a stronger Europe, something that for decades had been an integral part of France's genetic footprint.

The Elysee's position toward NATO appeared contradictory since the era of French President Charles de Gaulle, who withdrew French forces from the alliance's leadership in 1966, a decision whose opposite was taken just 40 years later.

In the same context, I do not think any of the European countries, including Germany, which is one of the main actors in Europe, nor the countries of Eastern Europe, will want the demise of this NATO or America's exit from it.

Strategic observers have noticed the exchange of counter ideas that were not publically revealed before, between Macron and German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer who underlined, in an article published in the American newspaper "Politico", "the necessity of putting an end to the illusions of European strategic independence," “The Europeans will not be able to replace America's decisive role as a provider of security, ”; a view that Macron later strongly disagreed with.

What the strategists noticed is that the statements of the French President angered many European partners to the point that some accused him of taking the right to speak in favor of Europe, except that he did not speak with Europe... In Poland and the Baltic countries, people feel directly threatened by Macron's perceptions. There, NATO is the only guarantee against the threatening big neighbor, Russia

At first, Macron announced his intention to normalize ties with Russia. And now his words appear to be unacceptable in those countries ... With the approach of a new administration to the White House that adopts the Obama school, I think that the strategic autonomy project of the French President will be buried; Europe does not have the financial or strategic capabilities possible for that, and the nature of the forthcoming world order will make many European countries unable to think about abandoning the American umbrella.