Al-Mashat: EBRD Forecast Reflects Confidence in Egypt’s Reform Agenda

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has projected continued positive growth for Egypt’s economy, according to its latest Regional Economic Prospects report released during the Bank’s annual meetings held in the United Kingdom. The forecast reflects optimism regarding Egypt’s economic outlook, driven by recovery in non-oil sectors and the ongoing implementation of structural reforms.

Egypt’s Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, Dr. Rania Al-Mashat, who also serves as Egypt’s Governor at the EBRD, participated in the meetings and welcomed the report’s findings. The EBRD expects Egypt’s economy to grow to 3.8% by the end of FY 2024/25, and to 4.4% in FY 2025/26, with growth supported by improved performance in manufacturing, transportation, and trade. On a calendar-year basis, growth is projected to reach 4% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.

The report noted that Egypt saw year-on-year growth of 3.9% in the first half of FY 2024/25, a notable increase from 2.4% in the same period last year, as foreign exchange shortages eased after March 2024. While the oil and gas sector showed a decline, the government is actively addressing challenges by settling arrears to international energy firms.

The EBRD emphasized that Egypt’s economic outlook remains closely tied to the pace and consistency of structural reforms—particularly those reducing the state’s footprint in the economy and lowering public debt and debt service costs. However, it also cautioned that global uncertainties, including shifting trade policies, still pose external risks.

Dr. Al-Mashat commented that the positive projections validate Egypt’s reform trajectory. She highlighted that Egypt’s GDP growth rose from 3.5% to 4.3% between the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, with expectations to reach 4% by the end of the year. She reaffirmed the government’s commitment to macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, and expanding the National Structural Reform Program, which focuses on enhancing the investment climate and enabling greater private sector participation—particularly in export-oriented sectors.

The report also showed signs of macroeconomic stabilization, with inflation falling to 12.8% in February 2025, its lowest level since March 2022. The Central Bank’s monetary tightening is expected to further ease inflationary pressures in the coming period.