By: Dr. Amr Hassan,
Assistant Professor of Obstetrics & Gynecology, Cairo University
Former Rapporteur, National Population Council, Egypt
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi repeatedly considered the problem of water and population an important strategic and national security issue.
In his speech delivered at the opening of the Rubiki project, the President said: "We are improving the irrigation system because, as the size of our population increases, more water supplies are required."
He added: "We seek to save every drop of water to face the population increase."
Also, during his speech at the 31st Symposium of the Egyptian Armed Forces, he said:
"Water supplies currently available to Egypt are hardly sufficient, especially in the face of population growth.
According to international and United Nations standards, Egypt has indeed gone into a phase of water scarcity."
Since the dawn of history, civilizations have emerged around sources of fresh water and the ancient Egyptian civilization thrived along the River Nile. Egypt has always been known as the Gift of the Nile.
Little has changed nowadays, and hardly will it change in the future, as water remains the basis for prosperity of the economy and the society.
Water is the world's most renown border separating the world's rich and poor. North America's per capita water consumption is estimated at 400 litres per day, Europe at 200 litres per day, while in developing countries the average daily water consumption is only 10 litres.
The Middle East is one of the world's poorest regions in water resources with only 1 percent of the world's water supply. There are several examples: litigation over the Hasbani River between Israel and Lebanon, the dispute between Nile Basin countries over the respective share of each country, as well as the Turkish-Syrian-Iraqi dispute over Turkish dams built at the sources of the Rivers Tigris and Euphrates.
Water resources in Egypt are estimated to be 60 billion cubic meters, of which 55.5 billion cubic meters are derived from the River Nile and about 6 billion cubic meters from rain, groundwater and desalination of seawater. Current water consumption in Egypt is about 80 billion cubic meters, pided into:
· Agricultural water: 64 billion m³
· Drinking water: 11.5 billion m³
· Industrial water: 5 billion m³
The deficit gap is around 20 billion m³, which is filled by agricultural wastewater recycle, yielding approximately 13.5 billion m³ and groundwater in the Nile valley and Delta of 6.5 billion m³.
All future figures and statistics point to a water scarcity in Egypt unless the problem is confronted with determination and action.
Many studies indicated that the water crisis that hit Egypt has deteriorated rapidly over the past 60 years due to the uncontrolled population increase, which affected the per capita share of Nile water. When the population of Egypt in 1959 was about 27 million people and the water share of Egypt was 55.5 billion m³, the per capita share was nearly 2000 m³. With Egypt's population reaching 101 million in 2020, per capita share has shrunk to less than 600 m³/year. Thus, the per capita share declined by nearly 1,500 m³ in 60 years due to population growth, making Egypt among the 14 poorest countries in per capita quota.
UN reports indicate that the water poverty line is estimated at 1,000 m³ per capita per year and the water scarcity limit is estimated at 500 m³ per capita per year.
Per capita quota continues to drop steadily with the country's large population growth, with international reports and the most optimistic scenarios, estimating a population of 150 million in 2050 and 200 million in 2100. The respective per capita water will be less than 400 and 300 m³ in 2050 and 2100, i.e. reaching the threshold of water scarcity.
If the solutions to the water crisis look to increase the availability of water, the cap on Egypt's population has become inevitable. Thus, it has become an urgent necessity to limit population growth according to water resources and the per capita fresh water quota in Egypt becomes the basis for determining the size of its population.
The water crisis is one of the most alarming crises facing Egypt and every effort must be made to limit population growth and increase water storage and salvaging.
Agriculture experts have issued warnings in the wake of the steady population increase, which sharply increases demand of drinking water and calls for the expansion of agriculture to reduce food shortages.
Egypt's problem with population growth lies in its increasing development needs, and the gradual reduction of its agricultural land and limited water sources.
A 2006 UN report focused on governance issues as the core of the water crisis, stating:
*"There is enough water for all. Often, insufficient water is consequent to mismanagement and corruption, lack of proper institutional management, bureaucratic inertia and lack of investment in human capacity and infrastructure."
This vision must be constantly kept in mind when addressing this crucial issue. Currently, Egypt is implementing a good national strategy to optimize its water quota and reduce wasted Nile water by lining irrigation canals. However, a firm strategy is required to control the rapid population growth in order to maximize development outcomes and achieve security and well-being for the people of Egypt.
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