The American University in Cairo(AUC) held, on Monday, via Zoom program, an important seminar at an important time under the title: “What is the Impact of the Coming American Elections on Egypt and the Middle East? Dr. Bahgat Qorani, professor of international relations and political economy at the American University in Cairo, spoke first in seminar. Ambassador Karim Hajjaj, a practicing professor in the Department of Public Policy and Administration and Director of the Walid Bin Talal Center for American Studies and Research at the American University in Cairo also spoke at the seminar.
Journalist Ezzat Ibrahim, editor-in-chief of Al-Ahram Weekly, an Egyptian English-spoken weekly, and the English Al-Ahram portal, directed the seminar. Ibrahim described the American elections as the fiercest in American history. And its importance is that it will determine the foreign policy of the great powers in the world, and it will also determine the direction of foreign policy with China!
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via Zoom program,[/caption]
Dr. Qorani pointed out that US President Trump's statements issued days ago that Egypt has the right to use the military option with Ethiopia in the issue of the Renaissance Dam, is a strong support for Egypt.
Some analysts considered those statements as a green light for Cairo to take military action against Ethiopia!
The declared position of the American president is the strongest Western position in support of Egypt, compared to Europe which suffices to talk about the need to continue negotiations and that they must lead to results. On the other hand, Washington took a decision to cut aid to Addis Ababa .The United States sponsored the negotiations that took place in Washington last February. Trump administration presented an agreement to settle the dispute of the controversial dam but Ethiopia refused to sign the agreement.
Exceptional elections for two reasons:
Dr. Qorani rejected the idea that Trump's statements tantamount to implicating Cairo in military action against Ethiopia. He pointed out that the Egyptian leadership's emphasis on rejecting the military solution. Dr. Qorani described the American elections as being of special importance because their results affect the whole world, and they are also exceptional elections for two reasons: The first is related to the sharp polarization not only among the candidates but within the American society, as for the second being the first elections that affect personal accounts.
With regard to the Middle East region, the recent period witnessed Trump achieving a number of breakthroughs, the most important of which is the normalization of ties between Israel on the one hand and the United Arab Emirates ( UAE), Bahrain and Sudan on the other hand, especially since there are previous administrations that tried to make a breakthrough in the matter of establishing relations between Israel and the countries of the region. But this was only achieved during the era Trump. And the announcements of normalization always came from Washington in all three cases. Professor Qorani pointed out that these agreements differ from the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, as they go beyond the idea of establishing bilateral relations to the issue of forming a new Middle East.
Similarities between Republicans and Democrats :
However, Ambassador Karim Hajjaj presented similarities or continuity under a good republican or democratic administration. He assured that there is a degree of continuity in American politics between successive administrations, beginning with Obama, and this aspect is represented by the low importance of the Middle East region in the strategic calculations of the United States, in contrast to the growing importance of other regions, which the United States considers more influencing its strategic interests.
Hajjaj emphasized that this development is an arrangement that has to redefine American interests in the Middle East, as basic interests, such as securing oil supplies, preserving Israel's security, and ensuring the interests of the Gulf allies are still going on. But the USA has retreated somewhat in favor of issues such as combating terrorism and limiting the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
These basic interests are a common denominator between Obama and Trump is expected to continue if Biden won't win. "We may witness the continued reduction of the military presence in the Middle East region, which is currently estimated at 60,000 soldiers, to what it was before the Gulf War", he said.
Biden's position on Iran:
It is also expected that the USA will continue to avoid engaging militarily in long-term armed conflicts in the region to avoid internal criticism. Washington won't continue politically and diplomatically active in the settlement of political conflicts in the region (Libya - Syria - Yemen), and will be satisfied with limited diplomatic moves. Hajjaj touched on the differences that may arise in the policy of the Biden administration if he wins the upcoming elections, including the Iranian issue.
The Biden administration is expected to revive the course of negotiations with Tehran in an attempt to reach a new agreement, and it may expand any negotiations to include additional files such as ballistic missiles and Iran's interventions is in the region. Biden will employ Trump's sanctions to pressure Iran to come to the negotiating table. As for the second point of differences, it relates to the Palestinian issue, where we are likely to witness a review of Trump's policy towards the Palestinian file not with regard to the security of Israel.
Palestinian rights:
The new US policy may re-focus on the formula for a two-state solution to settle the Palestinian issue, the return of US aid, and a focus on Palestinian rights, but we are unlikely to see a decline in the relocation of the US embassy. The third difference relates to relations with the Gulf States, as they are likely to witness a decline due to the reduction of the military presence in the region, which will raise questions about commitment to Gulf security, bearing in mind that there is pressure from Congress to reconsider relations with the Gulf States, especially with regard to exports of weapons.
Hajjaj explained that foreign policy issues in general do not occupy importance in the framework of the US elections, let alone Middle East issues, except in the event of a strong crisis facing US foreign policy, which does not currently exist, but there are issues that are of interest to specific groups, not including the Middle, for example, Americans of Cuban descent support Trump, since his policy towards Cuba serves their interests.
With regard to the expected relationship with Egypt if Biden wins, Hajjaj stressed that it must be taken into account that upholding democracy and human rights issues is natural and rooted in American politics, and the exception to that was during the Trump administration.
But there is a fundamental difference between upholding human rights in political discourse.
Contributed by Ahmed Moamar
https://www.aucegypt.edu/academics/graduate-studies
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